Race weight

Apparently I'm back at that mysterious thing known as "race weight"... I've been turning ski muscles into bike muscle and losing a few pounds of winter beer fat since getting back on the bike in mid-March, but finally, three days in a row my $7 scale has proclaimed I'm at last year's cross race weight.  And I'm not even dehydrated. 

This begs the question - am I aiming too high - or is it low?  It was easier to get where I was headed this year - perhaps the 10lb head start helped or maybe just knowing how it worked last year... but it gets me to thinking, should I revise my target race weight to no longer include the last bit of belly roll that seems to be part of getting older? 

Of course, I celebrated by declaring it a muffin morning.